Predictions
Another set of predictions, this time for the first distance race. I haven’t changed the methodology at all, yet.
It’s predicting Jessie Diggins to finish second, which seems like a moderately bold take. We’ll see!
Ha ha! I accidentally used the start list from the women’s sprint instead of the 10k classic, no wonder the predictions looked a little wonky! I replaced them with ones generated from the correct start list.
Men’s 10k Classic Predictions
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Women’s 10k Classic Predictions
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Update
Alright, let’s see how we did, starting with the men:
Again, my predictions did somewhat better than my chosen baseline here. I’m beginning to notice a pattern where my predictions do particularly well for the very top & bottom of the fields, while things are more similar between the two in the middle.
How about the women:
We did slightly better here, but not as much better as with the men. Unlike with the men, there isn’t a big difference with the performance at the front of the field, but my predictions did do noticeably better with the bottom of the field.