Falun 20k Freestyle Mass Start Race Snapshots
world cup
distance
race snapshots
mass start
freestyle
falun
Falun 10k Classic Interval Start Race Snapshots
world cup
distance
race snapshots
interval start
classic
falun
All Time Best Distance Skiers
world cup
olympics
world championships
distance
Putting skier’s performances in historical context is something I’ve written about a lot, in a variety of forms. Most recently I looked at simple rates of winning & podiums as a way of quantifying some of the best skiers in…
Oslo 50k Classic Mass Start Race Snapshots
world cup
distance
race snapshots
mass start
classic
oslo
holmenkollen
Lahti 20k Classic Interval Start Race Snapshots
world cup
distance
race snapshots
interval start
classic
lahti
Canmore 20k Classic Mass Start Race Snapshots
world cup
distance
race snapshots
mass start
classic
canmore
Canmore 20k Classic Predictions
world cup
distance
classic
mass start
predictions
canmore
Just squeaking this one in under the wire.
Canmore 15k Freestyle Mass Start Race Snapshots
world cup
distance
race snapshots
mass start
freestyle
canmore
Canmore Freestyle Sprint Predictions
world cup
sprint
predictions
classic
canmore
I’m finding this method very interesting. I’m not sure why it’s not rating Jessie higher. More fun things to tinker with I guess.
Canmore 15k Freestyle Predictions
world cup
distance
freestyle
mass start
predictions
canmore
Back to the predictions game! Nothing too daring in the output this time, I think.
The 20k Freestyle Race in Goms Was Absurdly Fast
world cup
distance
freestyle
mass start
goms
pace
A reader emailed me to comment on the blistering pace of the recent 20k freestyle mass start races in Goms. And indeed, they were quite fast!
Goms 20k Freestyle Mass Start Race Snapshots
world cup
distance
race snapshots
mass start
freestyle
goms
Jessie Diggins’ Unique QF Choice Strategy
world cup
sprint
heats
jessie diggins
Has anyone else noticed that Jessie Diggins isn’t making QF choices like any of her peers?
Goms 20k Freestyle Predictions
world cup
distance
freestyle
mass start
predictions
goms
Putting Krueger first is pretty evidence my method is weighting recent results a lot less heavily than the conventional wisdom would, I think.
Goms Freestyle Sprint Predictions
world cup
sprint
predictions
classic
oberhof
Freestyle sprints in Goms should go well for Jessie, you’d think, but my little algorithm is sticking with a Swedish sweep.
Oberhof 20k Classic Mass Start Race Snapshots
world cup
distance
race snapshots
mass start
classic
oberhof
Oberhof 20k Classic Predictions
world cup
distance
classic
mass start
predictions
oberhof
Maybe underrating Amundsen on the men’s side here?
Oberhof Classic Sprint Predictions
world cup
sprint
predictions
classic
oberhof
And…..things go back to a weekly schedule and I promptly forget that the sprint races are on Friday, not Saturday. Ah well.
Val di Fiemme 15k Classic Mass Start Race Snapshots
tour de ski
distance
race snapshots
mass start
classic
val di fiemme
TdS Val di Fiemme 15k Classic Predictions
tour de ski
distance
classic
mass start
predictions
val di fiemme
I mean, Frida is sort of getting stronger as the Tour progresses, but I think Linn Svahn is being underrated here.
TdS Davos Freestyle Sprint Predictions
tour de ski
sprint
predictions
freestyle
davos
Updating stuff during the…
Toblach 10k Classic Race Snapshots
tour de ski
distance
race snapshots
interval start
classic
toblach
TdS Toblach Freestyle Sprint Predictions
tour de ski
sprint
predictions
freestyle
toblach
I wasn’t super organized last night, so you’ll have to just trust me that I generated these predictions without feeding in the actual results. Honest!
TdS Toblach 10k Classic Predictions
tour de ski
distance
classic
interval start
predictions
toblach
My model doesn’t know that Pål Golberg & Ebba Anderson are sick. And it’s still convinced of the weight of Frida Karlsson’s prior season exploits.
Trondheim 10k Classic Race Snapshots
world cup
distance
race snapshots
interval start
classic
trondheim
World Cup Winning Streaks By Nation
world cup
distance
sprint
winning streak
The Norwegian men are currently on a 17 race winning streak in distance races which frankly doesn’t seem likely to end anytime soon.
Trondheim 20k Skiathlon Race Snapshots
world cup
distance
race snapshots
skiathlon
mass start
trondheim
Trondheim 10k Classic Predictions
world cup
distance
classic
interval start
predictions
trondheim
Haha…I wonder…
Trondheim 20k Skiathlon Predictions
world cup
distance
skiathlon
mass start
predictions
trondheim
First skiathlon…the women’s ranking are still liking Frida, despite the poor results she’s had so far. It’s always a tricky balance.
Trondheim Freestyle Sprint Predictions
world cup
sprint
predictions
freestyle
trondheim
Trondheim freestyle sprint predictions. Like I said, I’ll try to reassess how this thing is doing after Period 1 is done.
Gällivare 10k Freestyle Interval Start Race Snapshots
world cup
distance
race snapshots
freestyle
interval start
östersund
Östersund 10k Freestyle Interval Start Predictions
world cup
distance
freestyle
interval start
predictions
östersund
It’s always a tradeoff on balancing how much these predictions respond to the most recent races versus how much you weight older results. No good solution to that, really.
Östersund Classic Sprint Predictions
world cup
sprint
predictions
classic
östersund
Another World Cup weekend rolls around…time for more predictions. As before, I’ll update this post tomorrow to see how wrong I was.
Gällivare 10k Freestyle Interval Start Race Snapshots
world cup
distance
race snapshots
freestyle
interval start
gällivare
Gällivare 10k Freestyle Interval Start Predictions
world cup
distance
freestyle
interval start
predictions
On to the second weekend in Gällivare, Sweden. I’ve decided I’m not going…
Some Jan Thomas Jenssen Results
world cup
ruka
jan thomas jenssen
I’ll be honest, I’m posting this mostly just to test some of my internal blog…
Ruka 20k Freestyle Mass Start Race Snapshots
world cup
distance
race snapshots
freestyle
mass start
ruka
Ruka 20k Freestyle Mass Start Predictions
world cup
distance
freestyle
mass start
predictions
First predictions for a mass start event, tomorrow’s 20k freestyle mass start in Ruka.
Ruka 10k Classic Predictions
world cup
distance
classic
predictions
Another set of predictions, this time for the first distance race. I haven’t changed the methodology at all, yet.
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